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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.