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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."